Indexing Cord Cut-ability – How Much TV Do You Lose Going Online-Only?

Indexing Cord Cut-ability – How Much TV Do You Lose Going Online-Only?

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There’s been a lot of press about "cord cutters" over the past few months.  Apparently a lot of people who are friends of reporters have stopped subscribing to multichannel TV services in favor of online video – "Caitlin/Cody, 28, a graphics designer/professional tweeter living in SOHO/SOMA/WEHO says she/he has given up her/his cable/satellite/IPTV service. I do all my TV show watching online."  On the other hand, we see metrics on watching TV in the old-fashioned ways actually on the increase.  The recent Nielsen Three Screen report says Q4 08 TV viewing time spent was up 3.6% vs. a year ago.  Multi-channel TV subscriber levels at the major operators increased in Q4 by 335,000 (based on Berstein Research analyst Craig Moffett’s numbers reported by Daisy Whitney in TV Week, I’ve added DISH and Cablevision’s later reports – note that the increase was driven by DIRECTV and the telcos, DISH and the major MSOs saw losses).

My tendency is to agree with Moffett when he told TV Week that cord cutting “remains the province of urban myth.” At least right now.  But, driven by advances in technology plus market demand from consumers, networks and advertisers, cord cutting or some other form of broadband delivered "over the top" looms large (it’s not here yet, but we can see it on the horizon).

To me, this begs the question… today, if you "cut the cord," how much TV can you still see?

Continue reading “Indexing Cord Cut-ability – How Much TV Do You Lose Going Online-Only?”

Back To The Future (Estimates) – A Brief Review of Broadband Video, DVR and VOD Metrics

Back To The Future (Estimates) – A Brief Review of Broadband Video, DVR and VOD Metrics

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(As many of you know, I recently returned to the world of independent consulting, after a stimulating and rewarding four years as Chief of Analysis and Research at multiplatform video ad management provider BlackArrow. Due to overwhelming demand (thanks to both of you who asked) I’m bringing back the Niemeyer Review Newsletter, last seen in 2004. The Niemeyer Review Newsletter will be a weekly look at the business of advanced video and television, including broadband, DVR, VOD, interactive TV and mobile. As much of what I’ve done over the past seven years (at BlackArrow and consultancies DiMA Group and my own Centrimedia before that) has been to use quantitative analysis to inform qualitative insights, you’ll see ample evidence of my being a “numbers wonk.”)


For the first “new” edition of the newsletter, I’ll set the stage a bit by reviewing some landscape metrics for online video, DVR and VOD. I’ll look at what they are now (as of the end of 2008), five years ago (end of year 2003) and what they’ll be in three years (end of year 2011).


(A note… unless otherwise noted the following estimates are mine, developed using analyses based on data gained from public sources.)

Continue reading “Back To The Future (Estimates) – A Brief Review of Broadband Video, DVR and VOD Metrics”